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Needing to bail out the bailout

Nov 16 2008 7:38pm
WP:
"The fundamental problem," says a report by Brian A. Johnson, an analyst at Barclays Capital, is that a bailout big enough to cover GM's cash needs in 2009 and 2010, whether in the form of new debt or preferred stock, would leave the company with more debt than GM earnings would be able to support even after an economic recovery.
...
These [new product lines] are more important than the still nonexistent though widely advertised Volt, which, even if successful, is projected to account for a small portion of GM and overall U.S. auto sales -- and lose money -- for years. GM argues that a new "global architecture" approach is paying off with better cars that have common parts and lower costs. Also, revisions to the UAW contract are bringing wage costs in line with foreign-owned competitors like Toyota, and in a couple of years GM will pay off health-care obligations for hundreds of thousands of retired workers.
Maybe GM should enter Chapter 11 bankruptcy and be broken up. The Volt line has long-term promise and would be a waste if wiped out; maybe a private equity group or foreign automaker could buy that. The SUV and truck lines would be profitable now if not for the financial crisis, but with gas prices expected to rise again over the next few years, the plants would have to be retooled for newer lines. There must be some value in all the supply chains, economies of scale, human capital, and manufacturing plants the auto industry relies on - maybe what they need is a new market structure with new or more players.

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