Thursday, October 9, 2008

Two economic paradigm shifts

I think we're going to see two trends in the coming months and years:
First, the world, fairly or not, is blaming the U.S. for the global financial crisis. Not for a very long time will the U.S. have any clout anymore when it comes to telling other countries how to run their economies.
Second, the mythological virtue of economic interconnectedness has been busted. The whole world is suffering a crisis that should have been limited to the U.S. and maybe a handful of other countries with housing bubbles. The news that countries like Iceland and Pakistan are near national bankruptcy because their economies were so heavily interconnected and leveraged with global markets should give us pause. Interconnectedness was supposed to make countries more immune to shocks; in reality the opposite seems to be the case.
Whether this will - or should - translate into another era of protectionism, I don't know.

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